While we wait for the notes from yesterday's meeting (~36 people were present - thank you!), you may want to read this document, that among other things, brings up the impact of air pollution on health. It was written by Lorraine James B.Sc. (Neuroscience), a Helensvale resident. I am posting it here with her permission.
Cheers,
Tom A.
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My point of view on the Coomera Connector
1. More highways just cause induced/generated demand and congestion quickly returns
The Coomera Connector is so far predicted to cost approximately $2.4 billion, although given that the Business Case has not yet been developed, it is likely that this cost will more than double. I can’t help but question why Government is so supportive of putting this sort of money into more roads and more cars, when there is a clear ‘black hole’ of highway construction. The bottomless pit of highway construction or the ‘black hole’ is an established academic principle in transport planning. The more highways we build, the more people flood to use them because it increases convenience. The more people flood to use them the more highways we need to build to maintain this convenience. There is no way to truly build our way out of congestion with more highways and this has been proven all around the world. This report below is about the ‘black hole of highway construction’ or ‘induced demand’ and is really interesting: https://www.vtpi.org/gentraf.pdf
Investments into public transport, efficient use of existing infrastructure, heavy and fast rail improvements and realignments and other attempts to address congestion should be sought prior to the commitment of billions of dollars for highway infrastructure that won’t actually solve the inherent problem. It’s also important to consider that technology changes including driverless vehicles, working from home options, ‘pay for service’ driver schemes and other disruptors may soon make this project redundant.
Although the Business Case for this project is proceeding, often these are simply a means to justify a benefit vs cost ratio (BCR) of more than 1. Whilst this is easy to demonstrate if you twist the numbers enough, the real cost of this highway cannot be captured by dollars. The real cost will be on the environment, the continued dependence on private car use, the Qld tax payers, the residents living nearby whose homes will be heavily impacted, increased pollution and the future generations who may have to handle both the debt and the deconstruction of it.
I understand the frustrations of driving on the M1 when it is congested, but this itself is a powerful disincentive for private vehicle use. We should instead be attempting to improve our rail, make it fast, affordable and more appealing than waiting in line on the M1. If we can do that, and make it more appealing people will choose the alternative. If however, we spend billions and make travel easy, even those who are currently using public transport may start to abandon it to instead use private motor vehicles. The net benefits of these projects are not what we often think they will be. We need to move forward to a better future, not rinse and repeat the mistakes of the past.
2. Worldwide highways are now being deconstructed this close to townships
The world is moving away from highway construction and in fact, highway destruction is now happening. A number of American cities and states are investigating ‘highway deconstruction’,
seeking to remove highways which have turned communities into ‘troll country’ and are now instead reclaiming them and turn them into liveable locations.
The Coomera Connector corridor was gazetted more than 30 years ago, and what was appropriate then is not appropriate now. In Illinois, transportation agencies were sued for failing to consider generated traffic impacts in their planning.
https://www.gizmodo.com.au/.../6-freeway-demolitions.../
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freeway_removal
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5fd6n8hr
3. Where are the investigations into public transport alternatives?
I believe TMR should be required to document and circulate proof of where they have considered public transport alternatives. The Government pays lip service to public transport and the theory above shows that with another motorway, people will move from using public transport back to their cars – which is disastrous for the environment.
4. Studies have shown absolute relationships between living close to motorways, dementia and other neurological diseases
Studies linking dementia to air pollution from motorways and major roads:
a. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0228092 (2020)
Results: Reduced cortical thickness was observed in participants with high exposure relative to those with low exposure, primarily in sensorimotor regions of the brain including the pre- and post-central gyri and the paracentral lobule, but also within the frontal and limbic regions. These results suggest that significant childhood exposure to traffic related air pollution is associated with structural alterations in brain.
b. https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-020-0565-4 (2020)
Results: Road proximity was associated with all outcomes … for living < 50 m from a major road or < 150 m from a highway. Air pollutants were associated with incidence of Parkinson’s disease and non-Alzheimer’s dementia…
c. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jcpp.13189 (2020)
Conclusions: Prenatal exposure to PAH, a common neurotoxicant in air pollution, may magnify or sustain the effects of early life psychosocial/socioeconomic stress on psychiatric outcomes later in child development. This work highlights the critical role of air pollution exposure on child mental health.
d. https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/8/9/e022404 (2018)
Conclusions: We have found evidence of a positive association between residential levels of air pollution across London and being diagnosed with dementia, which is unexplained by known confounding factors.
e. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)32399-6/fulltext (2017)
Interpretation: In this large population-based cohort, living close to heavy traffic was associated with a higher incidence of dementia.
f. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28917207 (2017)
Discussion: In this large cohort, exposure to air pollution, even at the relative low levels, was associated with higher dementia incidence.
Here are also another couple of points on air pollution and general health: The World Health Organisation has said that air pollution is a major cause of death and disease globally¹.
https://www.who.int/airpollution/ambient/health-impacts/en/
In light of this, Australia's peak health organisations have called on the government to bring our goals for clean air in line with the best possible health evidence²
However, Australia is ranked 12th on the list of the top human-caused sulphur dioxide hotspots as tracked by NASA satellites. This matters immensely because air pollution can cause asthma, heart and lung disease, dementia and fertility problems. Even more disturbing, air pollution causes an estimated 4,880 deaths per year across Australia—that's around four times the national road toll.
5. Dementia is fast becoming Australians’ most leading cause of death (currently No. 1 in Australia women) and will costs the country billions within years
Australian statistics
Dementia is the second leading cause of death of Australians.
In 2016 dementia became the leading cause of death of Australian women, surpassing heart disease which has been the leading cause of death for both men and women since the early 20th century.
In 2017, dementia remained the first leading cause of death of women, and the third leading cause of death of men, overall, accounting for 13,729 deaths.
In 2019, there is an estimated 447,115 Australians living with dementia. Without a medical breakthrough, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase to 589,807 by 2028 and 1,076,129 by 2058.
Currently an estimated 250 people are joining the population with dementia each day. The number of new cases of dementia will increase to 318 people per day by 2025 and more than 650 people by 2056.
In 2019, it is estimated that almost 1.5 million people in Australia are involved in the care of someone living with dementia.
The impact of dementia in Australia
In 2018, dementia is estimated to cost Australia more than $15 billion. By 2025, the total cost of dementia is predicted to increase to more than $18.7 billion in today’s dollars, and by 2056, to more than $36.8 billion.
Dementia is the single greatest cause of disability in older Australians (aged 65 years or older) and the third leading cause of disability burden overall.
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Lorraine James B.Sc. (Neuroscience)
